This is Seeking Rents, a newsletter and podcast devoted to producing independent journalism about Florida politics, with an emphasis on the ways that big businesses and other special interests influence public policy in the state. Seeking Rents is produced by veteran investigative journalist Jason Garcia, and it is free to all. But you can support my work by becoming a paid subscriber and/or by making a one-time donation.
Welcome to another installment of Florida in Five: Five* stories you need to read from the past week in Florida politics.
One of the more illuminating recent studies about Florida property taxes came from Realtor.com, an industry news outlet founded by the National Association of Realtors.
The publication’s economic research team found that a proposal to deeply cut property taxes across Florida would immediately increase home prices across the state — triggering an almost-instant spike of between 7 percent and 9 percent.
That finding may help explain why the Florida Association of Realtors — a lobbying group for real estate agents who make their livings on sales commissions that rise alongside home prices — has decided to support Amendment 3, the proposed constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would deeply cut property taxes across Florida.
Now, to be fair, the Realtor.com research team analyzed a proposal to eliminate all property taxes on owner-occupied homes in Florida, which are typically referred to as “homestead” properties.
And Amendment 3 — which Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Florida Legislature rushed onto the ballot during a blink-and-you-missed-it special session in June — wouldn’t go quite that far.
The proposal that Floridians will vote on this fall would instead supersize an existing tax break for primary homeowners, essentially slashing the taxable value of every homestead property in the state by up to $250,000. So, for instance, the owner of a home worth $750,00 would pay taxes on the property as if it were worth only $500,000.
The discount would not apply to property taxes paid to your local school district. It would only reduce taxes paid to other local governments — from cities and counties to special districts that provide everything from fire-rescue response and public libraries to water management and flood control.
But the ultimate gap between the two ideas isn’t as wide as you might think. If approved by more than 60 percent of voters, Amendment 3 could pretty quickly wipe out somewhere between one-third and half of all property taxes paid by homestead property owners, according to estimates developed by nonpartisan state economists.
What’s more, Amendment 3 would also make it possible to completely eliminate homestead property taxes in the future without any further approval from voters — although not even the politicians in Tallahassee who voted to put Amendment 3 on the ballot understand how that part would actually work.
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More broadly, though, the Realtor.com analysis exposed one of the nettlesome truths about property taxes: Cutting them makes buying a home more expensive, not less.
This may sound counterintuitive, but there is lots of research on this point. The reason is that the future costs of owning a home — like property taxes, insurance and mortgage interest — get baked into its current value. Cut those future costs, and the present-day price will rise.
It’s the same reason home prices rise when interest rates fall.
“Property taxes shift the total cost of housing into the future,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis wrote in a November 2024 report, which focused specifically on how low property taxes become a barrier to homeownership for young families and other first-time buyers.
“For young households especially, this ‘capitalization’ of property taxes into a lower purchase price can make all the difference,” the senior economics writer at the Minneapolis Fed wrote. “Although their expected future earnings might be more than enough to cover taxes down the road, many struggle right now to muster the cash for a starter home due to hefty down payments.”
Realtor.com came to essentially the same conclusion when they noted that a giant homestead property tax cut in Florida would create “an immediate windfall for current homeowners, but only at the expense of future first-time buyers.”
This may not be a concern to myopic rent-seekers like the Florida Realtors, who have already set up a political committee that could be used to pay for advertisements supporting Amendment 3.
But it’s an important consideration in a state like Florida, where young people are now leaving the state in “significant numbers,” according to the Florida Chamber of Commerce — in part because many cannot afford to buy a home here.
“Outmigration among residents aged 20-29 is particularly concerning,” the Chamber wrote upon the release of its most recent “migration report,” which also found that “housing costs have been identified as the primary reason for outmigration.”
The Big Business lobbying group has been sounding an alarm about this trend for more than a year now, warning that the bleed of young adults in their 20s poses a long-term threat to Florida’s economic growth.
Amendment 3 could throw even more gasoline on that fire.
But, hey, at least real estate agents might bank some bigger commissions.
*To paraphrase Barbossa, five is more what you’d call a guideline than an actual rule.
Will anyone finish the job?
Questions persist over Hope Florida grand jury’s failure to hold anyone accountable over misappropriated funds (CBS News Miami)
See also: Orlando State Attorney says her office is looking into Hope Florida funds (Fox 49)
See also: Worrell links possible removal to review of Hope Florida money trail (CBS News Miami)
See also: Uthmeier’s Democratic opponent demands ‘preservation’ of Hope Florida documents (Tampa Bay Times) ($)
See also: Democrats want to impeach Uthmeier, but accountability may rest with the voters (Florida Trib)
See also: Will lawmakers act on Hope Florida grand jury’s call for change? Maybe. (Tampa Bay Times) ($)
See also: Bipartisan pressure grows over Hope Florida controversy (News Channel 8)
Meanwhile, they’re still pillaging taxpayers
Former DeSantis spokesperson’s PR firm lands more than $700K in government contracts (Tampa Bay 28)
See also: Scoop: Rays owners put $411K behind Buckhorn (Axios Tampa Bay)
See also: Public Wins Access to Ziegler Investigation Records as Appeals Court Reverses Secrecy Order (Florida Trident)
See also: Jacksonville City Council president flew on billionaire’s jet to catch Rays game (Florida Trib)
For so many legislators, it’s always someone else’s fault
Kendall says commissioners, lobbyists failed to flag controversial enclave bill roiling county (St. Johns Citizens)
See also: St. Johns County deadlocks on Davis enclave application, votes to challenge state law (Jacksonville Daily Record)
See also: DeSantis pledged millions for restoring reef ‘then pulled the rug from under us’ (Florida Trib)
See also: Who owns the beach? A heated battle plays out in the Florida Panhandle (NPR)
See also: Power for and by the people? St. Petersburg citizens launch campaign for municipal utilities. (Florida Phoenix)
See also: Despite environmental warnings, Kelly Tractor wins fight to build HQ in west Dade (Miami Herald) ($)
Gaming the system to keep immigrants locked up without rights
These Local Jails Were Supposed to Detain Immigrants for Only 72 Hours. One Woman Was Held for a Total of 26 Days. (ProPublica)
See also: FL immigration contracts quietly surged to $1.4B in disaster dollars (Miami
Herald) ($)
See also: DeSantis administration wants $250 million more to pay immigration bills (Orlando Sentinel) ($)
See also: 2 Alligator Alcatraz guards charged with battery (Tampa Bay Times) ($)
Data Center Donaldses
Erika Donalds says more AI can benefit FL students, warns against overregulation (Miami Herald) ($)
See also: Public can weigh in on Florida’s proposal to make 4 vaccines optional in schools, daycares (WUSF)
See also: Once a powerhouse, Moms for Liberty expected to hold majority on just two Florida school boards (Florida Trib)
See also: How Sarasota youth helped flip a conservative school board (Suncoast Searchlight)
See also: Florida teachers were targeted over Charlie Kirk posts. What happened next? (Tampa Bay Times) ($)
Perspectives
You’d probably be in cuffs if you did what the Hope Florida schemers did (Orlando
Sentinel) ($)
Hope Florida scammers treat Floridians like fools (South Florida Sun-Sentinel) ($)
Hope Florida money may have rigged an election. Voters deserve a do-over (Miami Herald) ($)
Florida, Vaccines and Religious Liberty (Wall Street Journal) ($)
Remember the Florida politicians who cast cruel votes against heat safety (Orlando
Sentinel) ($)
I will never defend property taxes as being an equitable means of funding government. However, this proposal is a con job. You know this because they’re rushing it through without any serious discussion of how that lost revenue will be replaced or, if not replaced, what will be defunded. Tell us if the sales taxes will go up or be expanded to tax groceries and services. Is a state income tax in the works? Since all of the revenue will go to Tallahassee along with the spending decisions, should we plan to just shut down local government?
Now, if the argument is that we don’t need that revenue at all, I challenge the GOP legislature to pass a budget that balances with the reduced revenue and live with it for a couple of years. Let’s see who gets favored treatment and who takes it in the neck. Put up or shut up.
From the Florida Trib article about Moms for Liberty that Jason cited:
"Culture war fights that once fueled the rise of Moms for Liberty are now losing steam in local Florida politics.
"Some conservative candidates like Donovan Bradley, a contender in the Duval County District 2 school board race vying to replace Moms for Liberty-endorsed April Carney, are taking different approaches than their predecessors."
Donovan Bradley is a well-spoken 25-year-old UNF grad who has been groomed by MAGAs including April Carney, Dean Black, and Cord Byrd. He has never had an actual job, but rather a series of internships with the individuals above as well as a "budget analyst" employed by Restrain of America, a national chain of cutouts for the tens of millions of dollars poured into the 2024 and current electoral process by the multimillionaire Uhlien family. I saw him speak at a local forum where he did not play up his right-wing credentials except to drop the names I mentioned and to envision himself in the halls and offices of the Legislature. In the August primary, Bradley got 49 percent of the votes with two other candidates sharing the remainder. This put him in a runoff in November. By no means is Donovan a puppet, but rather a young zealot for the right wing.