Republican lawmakers in Florida want to silence the state's top economist

A recap of the fourth week of the Florida Legislature's 2025 session, plus a preview of week five.

Photo credit: Urban Tallahassee

This is Seeking Rents, a newsletter and podcast devoted to producing original journalism — and lifting up the work of others — about Florida politics, with an emphasis on the ways that big businesses and other special interests influence public policy in the state. Seeking Rents is produced by veteran investigative journalist Jason Garcia, and it is free to all. But please consider a voluntary paid subscription, if you can afford one, to help support our work. And check out our video channel, too.

Last summer — near the beginning of what became an unprecedented state campaign against a citizen-led constitutional amendment that would have ended Florida’s near-total ban on abortion — Gov. Ron DeSantis and Republican leaders in the Legislature commandeered an obscure corner of state government.

Their target: The Financial Estimating Impact Conference, a small panel that analyzes the effect that proposed constitutional amendments will have on the state budget and then writes short ballot statements for voters to read before they cast their vote.

Meetings of estimating conferences — there are also others that, for instance, forecast future state revenues and predict the impact of potential tax breaks — are usually mild affairs.

A typical meeting involves four “principals” — the state’s chief economist, plus professional staffers appointed by the governor, the House speaker, and the Senate president — sitting around a table in a bottom-floor conference room in the bowels of the state Capitol complex. They calmly talk through issues until they reach consensus. And they do it without any of the thin partisan rhetoric or lobbyist-supplied talking points that dominate most other public discussions in Tallahassee.

That’s how it usually works, anyway. But last summer, Ron DeSantis and the then-speaker of the House hijacked the estimating conference for Amendment 4, the abortion-rights ballot measure.

The Financial Impact Estimating Conference meets in July 2024 to discuss Amendment 4 (Source: The Florida Channel)

They did it by yanking their typical professional appointees — who are, by law, supposed to have “appropriate fiscal expertise in the subject matter” of the proposed amendment — and replacing them with anti-abortion operatives. The governor, for instance, appointed a political aide whose background is in Republican politics.

Former House Speaker Paul Renner (R-Palm Coast) went even further. He gave a $75-an-hour, taxpayer-funded job to a fellow at the far-right Heritage Foundation — the think tank best known as the architect of “Project 2025” — so Renner could then make her his appointee to the Amendment 4 estimating conference.

The DeSantis and Renner appointees then teamed up to write a loaded ballot statement for Amendment 4 that was riddled with loose assumptions and rank speculation.

For example: Their ballot statement warned that the abortion-rights amendment might lead to lawsuits challenging state laws that restrict access to abortion. Which might then lead to some of those laws being overturned. Which might then lead to lawmakers expanding Medicaid health insurance to cover abortion care.

All of which meant, they wrote, that there was “uncertainty about whether the amendment will require the state to subsidize abortions with public funds.”

It’s one thing to assume that a new constitutional amendment will lead to litigation against the state. But it’s quite another to assume how a court will rule in that hypothetical litigation — and then to assume how state leaders will respond to the hypothetical ruling in the hypothetical lawsuit.

This wasn’t economic analysis. It was anti-abortion fear-mongering masquerading as economic analysis.

There was one person on the Amendment 4 estimating conference who objected to all this: Amy Baker, who is currently Florida’s chief economist — and the only member of Financial Impact Estimating Conference who is not directly appointed by one Republican politician.

“We’re not making a political statement here,” Baker said during the July hearing. “We are not trying to frighten people.”

Baker was ultimately overruled, because the appointee of former Senate President Kathleen Passidomo (R-Naples) voted with the DeSantis and Renner picks. The anti-abortion statement was printed on the ballot with Amendment 4, which eventually fell just short of the 60 percent supermajority needed to pass constitutional amendments in Florida.

But Baker’s dissent drew news coverage across the state.

Florida’s chief economist declined to sign off on the financial impact statement for the Amendment 4 .

So now some Republican politicians in Tallahassee want to punish her.

Last week, the House State Affairs Committee held a hearing on House Bill 1205, a piece of legislation that would make it far harder for Floridians to amend the state constitution by petition drive.

During the hearing, Republican legislators slapped an amendment on the bill that would remove Baker — whose formal title is coordinator of the Office of Economic and Demographic Research — as a voting member from all future Financial Impact Estimating Conferences.

Think about that for a second: Republicans in the Florida House voted to remove Florida’s top economist from the board that does the economic analysis for constitutional amendments.

An amendment to HB 1205 approved last week by the House State Affairs Committee.

It would be dumb if it weren’t so dangerous. Because this is explicit retaliation against a public servant who simply did her job — and an implicit threat against any other professional staffer in state government who might have the gall to say anything other than exactly what their small-minded bosses want to hear.

It’s shortsighted, too.

You’ve probably heard Florida politicians pat themselves on the back for passing a balanced state budget. They can only do that because they have smart and serious people like Amy Baker leading credible estimating conferences that accurately forecast state finances. The last thing any of us should want is to inject politics into that process. Nor should we tolerate petulant changes that could erode public confidence and drive off competent professionals.

The full House of Representatives is going to take up House Bill 1205 this week. And just to be very clear: The entire bill is a burning garbage barge that should be sunk to the bottom of the ocean, dredged up, and fired into the sun.

To goal of this bill is to make it virtually impossible for all but the wealthiest people and biggest corporations to run successful petition drives for constitutional amendments. That’s why the bill cuts the amount of time people have to turn in a signed petition by two-thirds — while simultaneously jacking up the fines for turning petitions in late by as much as 50 times over.

The one sliver of good in the legislation — a provision prohibiting the governor and state agencies from spending taxpayer money to advertise for or against an amendment — has been so watered down by House Republicans as to be effectively meaningless.

But this attack on Amy Baker — this attack on dissent — is especially noxious.

And it will do long-term damage to Florida.

Billtrack

In honor of the best show on TV, here’s a look at some of the bills on the move from the past week of session

• Senate Bill 134: Eliminates tax on sales of gold coins and bars. Passed the Senate Banking and Insurance Committee by a 9-0 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 541: Allows businesses to pay some workers less than minimum wage. Passed the House Careers & Workforce Subcommittee by a 12-4 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 651: Bans fluoride in local water supplies. Passed the House Criminal Justice Committee by a 14-4 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 667: Weakens defamation protections for news organizations. Passed the House Civil Justice & Claims Subcommittee by a 15-0 vote. (See votes)

• Senate Bill 676: Allows businesses to pay some workers less than minimum wage. Passed the Senate Governmental Accountability and Oversight Committee by a 5-1 vote. (See votes)

• Senate Bill 700: Creates a taxpayer-funded “Florida beef” advertising program for the cattle industry while imposing anticompetitive labeling restrictions on plant-based beef alternatives. Passed the Senate Agriculture, Environment and General Government Appropriations Committee by an 8-4 vote. (See votes)

• Senate Bill 752: Weakens defamation protections for news organizations. Passed the Senate Commerce and Tourism Committee by a 6-3 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 759: Lowers the minimum age to buy a gun in Florida from 21 to 18, undoing a gun-safety reform enacted following the 2018 mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland. Passed the House of Representatives by a 78-34 vote. (See votes)

• Senate Bill 806: Blocks the attorney general of Delaware from suing the Jacksonville-based Alfred I. duPont Charitable Trust for inappropriately diverting funding from charitable programs in Delaware. Passed the Senate Civil and Criminal Justice Appropriations Committee by a 9-0 vote. (See votes)

• Senate Bill 814: Allows people to bring guns onto school and college campuses. Failed to pass the Senate Criminal Justice Committee by a 3-4 vote. (See votes)

• Senate Bill 832: Strengthens legal protections for the Mosaic Co. against lawsuits stemming from radioactive contamination on land that has been mined for phosphate ore. Passed the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee by an 8-0 vote. (See votes)

• Senate Bill 872: Allows towing companies to charge higher prices to tow electric vehicles. Passed the Senate Community Affairs Committee by a 6-2 vote. (See votes)

• Senate Bill 918: Allows employers to put high school students on 40-hour weeks and overnight shifts on school nights. Passed the Senate Commerce and Tourism Committee by a 5-4 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 943: Limits the ability of local elected officials to stop affordable housing projects. Passed the House Housing, Agriculture & Tourism Subcommittee by a 14-1 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 1173: Blocks the attorney general of Delaware from suing the Jacksonville-based Alfred I. duPont Charitable Trust for inappropriately diverting funding from charitable programs in Delaware. Passed the House Insurance & Banking Subcommittee by a 16-0 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 1205: Imposes sweeping new restrictions and financial barriers on citizen-led constitutional amendments. Passed the House State Affairs Committee by an 18-7 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 1239: Helps utility companies make their customers pay for construction of biomethane plants and pipelines. Passed the House Economic Infrastructure Committee by a 15-1 vote. (See votes)

• Senate Bill 1288: Forbids teenagers from accessing birth control or sexually transmitted infection testing without approval from a parent. Passed the Sente Education PreK-12 Committee by a 5-4 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 1387: Makes it harder for teachers, bus drivers, clerks and most other public-sector workers to organize and maintain labor unions. Passed the House Government Operations Subcommittee by a 10-7 vote (See votes)

• Senate Bill 1388: Forbids local communities from setting restrictions on the sale or use of gas-powered jet skis. Passed the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee by an 8-0 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 6021: Eliminates tax on sales of gold coins and bars. Passed the Senate Banking and Insurance Committee by a 9-0 vote. Passed the House Ways & Means Committee by an 18-0 vote. (See votes)

• House Bill 6033: Repeals regulations on businesses that run labor pools for day laborers. Passed the House Industries & Professional Activities Subcommittee by an 8-4 vote. (See votes)

Looking ahead

Monday

• The Senate Banking and Insurance Committee will hear Senate Bill 498, which would allow banks to pay much lower interest rates on accounts that are used to fund Legal Aid programs for the poor. The meeting begins at 1:30 pm. (Contact committee members)

• The Senate Commerce and Tourism Committee will hear Senate Bill 1238, which would give businesses and state officials more ways to deny unemployment insurance to laid-off workers. The meeting begins at 1:30 pm. (Contact committee members)

• The Senate Commerce and Tourism Committee will also Senate Bill 1322, which would create a tax incentive program devised by by lobbyists for an investment company that profits off tax incentive programs. (Contact committee members)

• The House Commerce Committee will hear House Bill 1157, the House version of the bill that would give businesses and state officials more ways to deny unemployment insurance to laid-off workers. The meeting begins at 1:30 pm. (Contact committee members)

• The House Health & Human Services Committee will hear House Bill 1505, which would prohibit teenagers from accessing birth control or testing for sexually transmitted infections without permission from a parent. The meeting begins at 1:30 pm. (Contact committee members)

• The House Agriculture & Natural Resources Budget Committee will hear House Bill 651, which forbid local communities from fluoridating their water supplies and impose anti-competitive labeling restrictions on plant-based milk, meat and eggs. The meeting begins at 4 pm. (Contact committee members)

Tuesday

• The Senate Rules Committee will hear Senate Bill 806, which would prevent the attorney general of Delaware from suing the Jacksonville-based Alfred I. duPont Charitable Trust for inappropriately diverting funding from charitable programs in Delaware. The meeting begins at 9 am. (Contact committee members)

• The House Industries & Professional Activities Subcommittee will hear House Bill 1225, which would undo child-labor laws for kids as young as 14. The meeting begins at 9 am. (Contact committee members)

• The House Industries & Professional Activities Subcommittee will also hear House Bill 785, which would exempt Philip Morris’ IQOS and other “heated tobacco products” from the state tobacco taxes. (Contact committee members)

• The House PreK-12 Budget Subcommittee will hear House Bill 1255, a “Baby Olivia” bill that could force public schools to make sixth graders watch a cartoon of a fetus produced by an anti-abortion advocacy group. The meeting begins at 12:30 pm. (Contact committee members)

• The Senate Governmental Oversight & Accountability Committee will hear Senate Bill 1260, which would allow a county supervisor of elections to go over their local county commission in a budget dispute and appeal to the governor and Cabinet. The meeting begins at 1:30 pm. (Contact committee members)

• The Senate Judiciary Committee will hear Senate Bill 922, which would give employers more legal power to bind many workers to years-long non-compete agreements. The meeting begins at 4 pm. (Contact committee members)

• The Senate Judiciary Committee will also hear Senate Bill 1284, which would allow people to file wrongful death lawsuits on behalf of an embryo. (Contact committee members)

• The Senate Judiciary Committee will also hear Senate Bill 1288, the Senate version of the bill that would prohibit teenagers from accessing birth control or testing for sexually transmitted infections without permission from a parent. (Contact committee members)

• The House Government Operations Subcommittee will hear House Bill 1381, a far-reaching election bill that reduces early voting options and prevents college students from using their student IDs as identification when they vote. The meeting begins at 4 pm. (Contact committee members)

Wednesday

• The Senate Appropriations Committee will hear Senate Bill 2500, the Senate’s proposed budget. The meeting begins at 9 am. (Contact committee members)

Thursday

• The Florida House of Representatives will debate House Bill 1205, the bill that would impose sweeping new restrictions on, and financial barriers to, citizen-led constitutional amendments. The floor session begins at 12:30 pm. (Contact House members)

Note: The House notices committee meetings two days ahead of time, while the Senate notices them three days in advance. Click here to find the complete daily calendars in the Florida House of Representatives, and click here for the daily calendars for the Florida Senate.

Reading list

• Florida may loosen child-labor laws as state cracks down on illegal immigration (Miami Herald) ($)

• Key DeSantis initiative in limbo as Florida’s governor feuds with legislators (Miami Herald) ($)

• Reservoir war: Is this plan a win-win, or a backstab to environmentalists? (Palm Beach Post) ($)

• Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez compares higher education searches to 'spoil system' (WUSF)

• New College fires Chinese professor under controversial Florida ‘countries of concern’ law (Suncoast Searchlight)

• Gilzean fracas redux: GOP bills could give election supervisors more money (Orlando Sentinel) ($)

• Stop a bad backroom deal in Palm Beach | Editorial (South Florida Sun-Sentinel) ($)

Correction: An earlier version of this story had the incorrect the day of meetings of the House PreK-12 Budget Subcommittee and the House Government Operations Subcommittee. They are both meeting on Tuesday.